Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 0.017169 0.019440 0.021902 0.024771 0.028021 0.031590 0.035810
2025-08-24 0.013595 0.016723 0.020404 0.025060 0.030797 0.037644 0.046449
2025-08-31 0.011418 0.014861 0.019148 0.024885 0.032373 0.041833 0.054725
2025-09-07 0.010180 0.013877 0.018697 0.025453 0.034700 0.046944 0.064447
2025-09-14 0.008756 0.012421 0.017392 0.024644 0.034982 0.049239 0.070482
2025-09-21 0.007776 0.011430 0.016567 0.024332 0.035815 0.052237 0.077634
2025-09-28 0.006847 0.010396 0.015547 0.023591 0.035890 0.054074 0.083166
2025-10-05 0.006503 0.010177 0.015673 0.024524 0.038486 0.059781 0.094959
2025-10-12 0.006119 0.009850 0.015591 0.025103 0.040554 0.064819 0.106120
2025-10-19 0.005794 0.009579 0.015559 0.025738 0.042736 0.070176 0.118224
2025-10-26 0.005346 0.009062 0.015082 0.025592 0.043605 0.073448 0.127121
2025-11-02 0.004980 0.008645 0.014726 0.025601 0.044711 0.077168 0.137052
2025-11-09 0.004555 0.008097 0.014117 0.025145 0.045010 0.079598 0.145068
2025-11-16 0.004297 0.007820 0.013947 0.025442 0.046662 0.084523 0.158022
2025-11-23 0.003991 0.007427 0.013537 0.025264 0.047422 0.087893 0.168378
2025-11-30 0.003825 0.007274 0.013542 0.025841 0.049618 0.094046 0.184512
2025-12-07 0.003483 0.006760 0.012839 0.025019 0.049078 0.095012 0.190653
2025-12-14 0.003239 0.006414 0.012420 0.024702 0.049476 0.097782 0.200573
2025-12-21 0.002965 0.005985 0.011808 0.023950 0.048940 0.098662 0.206708
2025-12-28 0.002909 0.005986 0.012035 0.024897 0.051915 0.106779 0.228549
2026-01-04 0.002816 0.005902 0.012085 0.025486 0.054191 0.113645 0.248335
2026-01-11 0.002734 0.005835 0.012162 0.026130 0.056635 0.121045 0.269920
2026-01-18 0.002580 0.005603 0.011878 0.025982 0.057354 0.124835 0.283841